As researched by JICA, demand for apartments will exceed its supply and capacity and it will be major factor to increase costs of apartments. Apartment costs are expected to be raised by 50% in 2015 in comparatively with 2010, based on the mathematical analysis, which considered these and other factors.
Expectation of REAL ESTATE MARKET
In accordance with request presented by the Road, Transportation and Urban Development Ministry and Capital’s Governor’s Office, the JICA had made the “Research on Ulaanbaatar city’s general plan and urban development” in 2009. The Ulaanbaatar city’s General plan is being implemented in accordance with these documents. The research estimated changes of apartment structure based on the citizens’ demand. Analyzing it, the most suitable correlation/proportion for apartments is “29:25”. Townhouses will be included to the private houses.
| 2007 | 2020 | Changes | Yearly average growth | Comparison |
| Apartments | 86,090 | 184,440 | 98,350 | 7,565 | 29 |
| Private houses | 1,900 | 86,720 84,820 | 84,820 | 6,525 | 25 |
POTENTIAL HOUSING PLANNING TO CONTRUCT
| Number of apartments of houses, able to be built | Proportion | Proportion of suitable apartments | Suitable proportion for apartments for 1100 households |
| Existing | Suitable |
| Public apartments for families have few members | 3,038 | | | | 195 |
| Standard public apartments | 4,118 | | | | 265 |
| High-class apartments | 2,040 | | | | 131 |
| Amount | 9,196 | 1.00 | 1 | 9,196 | 591 |
| Terrace house | 76 | | | | 48 |
| Detached house | 274 | | | | 173 |
| Town house | 135 | | | | 85 |
| Row house | 319 | | | | 202 |
| Amount | 804 | 0.09 | 0.86 | 7,928 | 509 |
Assumption of project costs
| Suitable proportion for apartments for 1100 households | Average size for a family /square meter/ | Total size square meter/ | Project costs /by thous.USD/ | Total cost of project /by thous.USD/ |
| Construction cost | Land cost |
| Public apartments for families have few members | 195 | 35.11 | 6,855.21 | 0.54 | 0.014 | 3,797.79 |
| Standard public apartments | 265 | 47.57 | 12,589.86 | 0.60 | 0.014 | 7,730.18 |
| High-class apartments | 131 | 160.20 | 21,002.99 | 0.65 | 0.014 | 13,945.99 |
| Amount | 591 | | 40,448.07 | | | 25,473.95 |
| Terrace house | 48 | 274.70 | 13,216.82 | 0.80 | 0.014 | 10,758.49 |
| Detached house | 173 | 315.43 | 54,715.87 | 0.95 | 0.014 | 52,746.10 |
| Town house | 85 | 381.00 | 32,562.71 | 0.80 | 0.014 | 26,506.04 |
| Row house | 202 | 194.92 | 39,364.87 | 0.70 | 0.014 | 28,106.52 |
| Amount | 509 | | 139,860.27 | | | 118,117.15 |
| TOtAL Amount | 180,308.34 | | | 143,591.11 |
Assumption of project incomes
| Suitable proportion for apartments for 1100 households | Average size for a family /square meter/ | Total size /square meter/ | Costs of one square meter /by thous.USD/ | Incomes /by thous.USD/ |
| Value of one apartment | Total income |
| Public apartments for families have few members | 195 | 35.11 | 6,855.21 | 0.90 | 31.60 | 6,169.69 |
| Standard public apartments | 265 | 47.57 | 12,589.86 | 1.00 | 47.57 | 12,589.86 |
| High-class apartments | 131 | 160.20 | 21,002.99 | 1.10 | 176.22 | 23,103.29 |
| Amount | 591 | | 40,448.07 | | | 41,862.85 |
| Terrace house | 48 | 274.70 | 13,216.82 | 1.40 | 384.57 | 18,503.55 |
| Detached house | 173 | 315.43 | 54,715.87 | 1.80 | 567.77 | 98,488.57 |
| Town house | 85 | 381.00 | 32,562.71 | 1.60 | 609.60 | 52,100.33 |
| Row house | 202 | 194.92 | 39,364.87 | 1.20 | 233.90 | 47,237.84 |
| Amount | 509 | | 139,860.27 | | | 216,330.30 |
| TOtAL Amount | 180,308.34 | | | 258,193.14 |
Economical calculation or profits that will be gained by you
| Project total income | Project cost | Interest rate /20% of project cost/ | Marketing sales /6% of income | Total | Pre-tax income of project | Project profitability /%/ |
| Public apartments for families have few members | 6 169,69 | 3 797,79 | 759,56 | 370,18 | 4927,53 | 1 242,16 | 25,2% |
| Standard public apartments | 12 589,86 | 7 730,18 | 1 546,04 | 755,39 | 10031,60 | 2 558,26 | 25,5% |
| High-class apartments | 23 103,29 | 13945,99 | 2 789,20 | 1386,20 | 18121,38 | 4 981,91 | 27,5% |
| Amount | 41 862,85 | 25473,95 | 5 094,79 | 2511,77 | 33080,51 | 16 388,90 | 49,5% |
| Terrace house | 18 503,55 | 10758,49 | 2 151,70 | 1110,21 | 14020,41 | 4 483,15 | 32,0% |
| Detached house | 98 488,57 | 52746,10 | 10 549,22 | 5909,31 | 69204,63 | 29 283,93 | 42,3% |
| Town house | 52 100,33 | 26506,04 | 5 301,21 | 3126,02 | 34933,27 | 17 167,06 | 49,1% |
| Row house | 47 237,84 | 28106,52 | 5 621,30 | 2834,27 | 36562,09 | 10 675,75 | 29,2% |
| Amount | 216 330,30 | 118117,15 | 23 623,43 | 12979,82 | 154720,40 | 98 213,14 | 63,5% |
| TOtAL Amount | 258 193,14 | 143591,11 | 28 718,22 | 15491,59 | 187800,92 | 114 602,04 | 61,0% |
Expectation of REAL ESTATE MARKET
